Labour would lose around 90 per cent of its MPs if a General Election were held tomorrow, according to a major new poll. The survey of around 7,500 UK voters suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party would be reduced to just 41 seats, down from the 411 won at the 2024 General Election. Under this projection, Labour would fall behind both the SNP and the Greens at Westminster.
++ Cillian Murphy becomes a meme again after appearing with Taylor Swift on The Graham Norton Show
The research indicates that Reform UK would be the main beneficiary, winning an estimated 335 seats, while the Conservatives would remain the official opposition with 92 MPs. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to secure 60 seats, and Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party would return four MPs. The modelling, carried out by Electoral Calculus with communications agency PLMR, used Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification analysis based on polling by Find Out Now.
In Scotland, the picture is particularly bleak for Labour. The party is projected to retain just two MPs, with most seats returning to the SNP. Several senior Labour figures are forecast to lose their constituencies, while Reform UK is predicted to gain a single Scottish seat. Overall, the poll suggests the SNP would dominate Scottish representation, despite securing only around a third of the vote due to a fragmented opposition.
++ Pentagon journalists walk out in protest over new press rules
Analysts said the findings highlight both Labour’s challenges and the distinct political dynamics north of the Border. While cost-of-living pressures remain a key concern for voters across the UK, Scotland appears less receptive to Reform UK than other regions. Pollsters also noted that Labour faces pressure from both the right and the left, though weaker support for smaller parties could still offer some limited hope ahead of future elections.
